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You can bet on bettors

Donald Trump will probably lose the election. As I write, The Economist says he has only an 8% chance of winning. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, which came closest to predicting Trump’s win in 2016 and has the best track record among modelers, gives Trump just a 12% chance. But people who “put money where their mouths are” give Trump a better chance: 37%. That’s according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, the website I created with Maxim Lott. It tracks multiple betting sites around the world. Though 61%-37% seems like a giant lead for Joe Biden, 37% means Trump is likely to ...

Stimulus aids politicians

I recall several presidential elections ago, an elementary school teacher wrote a newspaper column about a mock election he held in his class. Two students were nominated by their classmates, and then they campaigned for their votes. Who won the election? One of the students presented an agenda and reasonably argued for the merits of that agenda. The other student promised ice cream for everyone who voted for her. She won. It is an unusual politician who has the power and authority to give voters ice cream but won’t use that power to buy votes. This is particularly true when ...

Repeat worries liberals

The 2016 election lives loudly in everybody right now. On the Trumpian right, “the polls were wrong before” isn’t merely an observation, it’s a catechism. And on the anti-Trumpian left, it’s a constant source of anxiety bordering on panic. It’s making a lot of folks a little crazy. My friend John Podhoretz, conservative editor of Commentary Magazine, pointed this out to me a few months ago. He lives in New York City, surrounded by Upper West Side liberals prone to flights of jangly rage if you suggest that Joe Biden has the race in the bag. “Don’t jinx it! ...

Dear Annie

Dear Annie: My neighbor put up wind chimes a few months ago. They are three-foot-long pipes that make a terrible clanging noise with every sweet little breeze. I find this irritating, rude and unacceptable. I feel like it is the same concept as playing music outside all day long, which of course no one would do, especially at 3 a.m. I cannot sit outside and enjoy my space without constantly hearing it. I hear it at night when I am trying to sleep, also if I wake up during the night, also first thing in the morning. I have resorted to wearing earplugs when I sleep because the clanging ...

Daily Horoscope

ARIES (March 21-April 19). Early on, distractions abound, and it feels impossible to get anything done. Don’t fight the flow. Relax and wait for productive hours that open up in the evening. TAURUS (April 20-May 20). You don’t always get a choice in the company you keep, but today, you absolutely have control over the social lineup, and your preference will make the day most enjoyable. GEMINI (May 21-June 21). You wanted it to be one way, and therefore, you saw it that way for a time. Delusion is a natural stage of the learning process. Then came an awakening, and now you’re in ...

Others beat back virus

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern forced a shutdown so strict that no one was allowed to go fishing or golfing, easy pursuits for social distancing. But her super-tough “go hard, go early” policy has virtually stamped out the coronavirus in this country of 5 million. Not only can New Zealanders again fish and golf but 30,000 of them just packed a stadium to watch a rugby match. They no longer have to wear masks even on public transportation, though that is encouraged. New Zealand is back in business. The political results are also in. Ardern and her party just won ...