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One man’s map through March Madness

It’s everyone’s favorite time of the year.

No matter how much – or how little – you watch the sport, from now until April 6, college basketball takes over the country.

I’ll be honest when I say this season hasn’t been my most-watched. My usual nightly routine of scanning three or four college basketball games across dozens of conferences has faded a bit with covering high school sports.

But please, hear me out. The research I’ve conducted since Selection Sunday grants me credibility to make my predictions for this men’s bracket, predictions of who I think will not only make the Final Four in Indianapolis but ultimately cut down the nets.

 

East region

College basketball analyst Jon Rothstein called this the “Region of the Blue Bloods” for a reason. From Jon Scheyer’s Duke Blue Devils to Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans, this portion of the bracket is loaded with big names and even bigger brands.

My attention immediately turns to the No. 2-seeded UConn Huskies – a team some may say has limped into postseason play.

Let’s walk back to Feb. 3. Head coach Dan Hurley’s crew just moved to 22-1 on the season after a 32-point home victory over Xavier. Their resume? Wins over BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida and Texas. Add an undefeated conference record, and you have a team people are talking about as a contender to win it all.

So what’s changed?

The Huskies have since lost four of their last 11 games, in what many consider a weak Big East. Two of those losses came to sub-.500 teams like Creighton (15-17) and Marquette (12-20). The others were to conference regular season and tournament champions, St. John’s, by a combined 29 points.

Despite all of this, I still love this UConn Huskies team, even with the lack of momentum they’ve carried into the Big Dance.

Five double-figure scorers lace this UConn offense as a well-oiled machine from the inside out. Tarris Reed Jr. commands the paint as a dangerous threat on both ends, while Solo Ball, Alex Karaban and Silas Demary Jr. provide length and athleticism on the perimeter.

Every team needs a sharp underclassman, and Braylon Mullins fits the mold. Mullins has averaged 12 points per game and poses threat as a very capable shooter.

This team will find a way to play with the same confidence and poise they saw during the first part of the season. And regardless, I’ll never doubt a Hurley-coached team from making a run in March.

 

South region

The only team that comes to mind in this region is one that is well past due to cut down the nets. A team that consistently makes Sweet 16, Elite Eight and even Final Four trips without reaping the rewards in the national title. That team is the Houston Cougars.

For five straight seasons, head coach Kelvin Sampson has guided his Cougars to at least a Sweet 16 finish or better. Last year’s roster was the closest the program has been to cutting down the nets since the 1983-1984 season, with Hakeem Olajuwon, losing in heartbreak to the Florida Gators, 65-63.

This season’s roster has the identity and talent that most past championship teams have carried through their runs in March.

Freshman Kingston Flemings is joined by seniors Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan to round out one of the toughest guard trios in the entire country, combining for over 40 points per game and carrying the ability to hit shots from outside.

Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler are the prototypical Houston forwards that Sampson looks for in his program. Two tall, lengthy bigs that can enforce themselves on defense while taking care of the glass.

Looking at the potential path Houston could take as a No. 2 seed in the region, I think the Cougars have some favorable stylistic matchups that could run them back to another national semifinal.

The No. 3-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini pose the largest threat with their outstanding shooting and high-octane offense. But Houston’s physicality and defensive style should neutralize their fast-paced brand of play, limiting outside shots with aggressive closeouts while forcing dribble penetration attempts.

This program has reached new heights under Sampson. Year after year, it inches closer to the ultimate goal. This might finally be the time the Cougars break through.

 

Midwest region

This one’s going to sting. As a professional Iowa athletics fan, it pains me to say that this year’s No. 2-seeded Iowa State Cyclones will make the Final Four for the first time since 1944 – yes, I had to double-check that.

The Cyclone program has built a consistent brand in the Big 12, winning a combined 10 regular-season and tournament titles since joining the conference in 1996. Despite the success, however, deep runs in March have been hard to come by. In fact, there have been more shortcomings than breakthroughs.

But what head coach T.J. Otzelberger has done with this year’s team is create the Cyclones best chance at not only making a national semifinal, but winning the championship.

Floor general Tamin Lipsey sets the table with his two-way ability to distribute the ball and become a nightmare for opposing offenses. Forwards Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson each bring a different dynamic to the court. Momcilovic boasts the nation’s best 3-point accuracy at nearly 50%, while Jefferson’s playmaking abilities have led to a handful of triple-doubles.

Add in the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the country, and you have a team hopeful of going beyond the opening weekend.

Otzelberger has done many wonders since taking over the job in Ames – 25-plus-win seasons, conference success, and high NCAA Tournament seeds. But a national title would etch his name in program history forever.

 

West region

The Arizona Wildcats have simply looked like the best team in college basketball this season. Their failure to be selected as the No. 1 overall seed is a disservice to what head coach Tommy Lloyd has done with his team this year.

Lloyd’s team has beaten nearly every quality opponent thrown his way. Victories over Florida, UConn, BYU, Iowa State and Houston only scratch the surface of the 16 total Quad 1 opponents Arizona has toppled.

It starts with the freshman class.

Shooting guard Brayden Burries and forward Koa Peat led the team in scoring with 16 and 13 points per game on over 50% shooting from the field. The duo owns the interior paint with their ability to knock down contested jump shots and layups underneath.

Senior Jaden Bradley is the decisive point guard that every team needs for a postseason push. The Big 12 Player of the Year dazzled fans with clutch shot-making on multiple occasions, including a game-winning floater against the Cyclones in the Big 12 Tournament Semifinals.

 

Who wins?

The Wildcats check all the boxes for anyone who wants a great team. You want an offensive outburst? They can deliver. What about stout defense in a big-time moment? Arizona has that too.

This feels like the year the program captures its first national title since 1997, cementing Lloyd as one of the brightest coaches in the game.

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