We’re not sure how Vladimir Putin intended his invasion of Ukraine to go, or what plans he had for the country are, if the invasion is successful. But we doubt the current situation is what he had in mind.

Putin no doubt expected the Russian military might would steamroll over the Ukrainian military opposition. So far, that’s not happening. Perhaps he expected the separatist attitudes in eastern Ukraine were widespread throughout the country, and the Ukrainian people would welcome, or at least accept the Russian occupation. But the Ukrainian people are united in opposition, and determined to protect their country.

Perhaps he expected other nations to stand by, offering no other opposition that sternly worded statements and a few economic sanctions that Russia could easily withstand. Instead, the world has united in support of Ukraine, offering military aid and weaponry and striking Russia with immediate, hard-hitting sanctions that are crippling its economy. Putin’s Russia is becoming a pariah nation.

If Russian troops do succeed in capturing Kyiv and overthrowing the democratically elected Ukrainian government, it is faced with the task of either occupying this large country full of hostile people, or creating a new regime. Does it have the resources for an armed occupation in the face of what is sure to be a vigorous insurgency, or will it suffer same failure as the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan? Will it succeed in installing a new regime when every other attempt, including the U.S.’s attempts in Iraq and Afghanistan have failed?

Putin’s best laid plans are not proceeding very smoothly. He has made a big mistake in the invasion of Ukraine, and will suffer for it.